Hanane Ouddoud, Judah Israel Ong Lescano, Keith Pardillada Belangoy, Yoshito Nishimura, Ko Harada, Hideharu Hagiya, Quynh Thi Vu, Naohiro Iwata, Tatsuaki Takeda, Yoshito Zamami, Toshihiro Koyama
Background/Objectives: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden decreased in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region between 1990 and 2019. This study used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to examine whether trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence continued through 2023 across all 21 NAME countries. Methods: We analysed age-standardised CVD mortality, incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression identified changes in temporal trends and calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Age-standardised CVD mortality decreased from 579.6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 358.2 in 2023 (AAPC: −1.42%; 95% CI: −1.48 to −1.35). However, no significant reduction occurred between 2019 and 2023 (APC: −0.33%; 95% CI: −1.37 to 1.75). DALY, incidence, and prevalence rates followed similar patterns, with no significant decline in the final years of this study. Egypt was the only country with a long-term increase in CVD mortality, which accelerated after 2020 (APC: +5.20%; 95% CI: 1.20 to 12.87). High systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, lead exposure, and air pollution were the leading modifiable risk factors. Conclusions: The earlier decline in CVD burden in the NAME region did not clearly continue after 2019. The region is currently off track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 by 2030. Future progress may depend on improved blood pressure control, lipid management, dietary habits, and environmental risk reduction. © 2026 by the authors.
Department of Health Data Science, Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University, Okayama, 7008558, Japan; Department of Pharmacy, School of Health Care Professions, University of San Carlos, Cebu City, 6000, Philippines; Division of Hematology and Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, 55901, MN, United States; Brookdale Department of Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, 10029, NY, United States; Department of Infectious Diseases, Okayama University Hospital, Okayama, 7008558, Japan; Faculty of Pharmacy, Haiphong University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Haiphong, 180000, Viet Nam; Department of Pharmacy, Okayama University Hospital, Okayama, 7008558, Japan; Department of Education and Research Center for Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University, Okayama, 7008558, Japan
