Leo Nhel D. Abao, Ricardo L. Fornis, Jonah Lee I. Bas
Rapid urbanization in the Philippines, particularly in highly urbanized cities such as Cebu City, has altered land cover patterns and intensified development pressure on natural landscapes. The Mahiga River watershed, located within Cebu City, has seen urban expansion encroach on natural waterways and disrupt terrain, contributing to frequent flooding in several key areas during heavy rainfall. This study analyzes and projects decadal land cover changes in the watershed using remote sensing and GIS. Land cover data for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were mapped and processed, with a 2030 projection generated using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS, which integrates cellular automata and artificial neural networks. Results show built-up areas expanding from 9.33 km2 in 2000 to a projected 13.19 km2 in 2030, while wooded (5.34 to 3.98 km2), covered (3.51 to 1.16 km2), and bare (0.17 to 0.02 km2) lands declined. These trends highlight the rapid urban growth within the watershed and demonstrate the utility of geospatial modeling for monitoring land cover transformation in floodprone urban environments. © 2025 IEEE.
Cebu Technological University, Department of Civil Engineering, Cebu City, Philippines; University of San Carlos, Department of Civil Engineering, Cebu City, Philippines
